科学分享类 临时征稿 英译中

Want to Really Boost the Economy?

Stay in the ParisAgreement

想提振经济？那就好好据守《巴黎协定》

　　

　　President DonaldTrump yesterday justified pulling the United States out of the Paris climateaccord largely, he said, because it would hurt the United States economy.

　　本地工夫6月1日，特朗普以连累美国经济为由，颁布发表美国将退出《巴黎气候协定》。

　　"As of today,the United States will cease all implementation of the nonbinding Paris accordand the draconian financial and economic burdens the agreement imposes on ourcountry," Trump said at yesterday's (June 1) news conference.

　　特朗普在6月1日的新闻公布会上暗示：“本日起，美国将遏制落实不具有约束力的《巴黎协定》，完毕这项协定强加给我们国度的苛刻的财务和经济担负。”

　　But the idea thatthe Paris Agreement will harm the economy is nonsensical, said Jonathan Koomey,a lecturer in Earth Systems at the School of Earth, Energy & EnvironmentalSciences at Stanford University. For one, the agreed-upon emissions cuts arenonbinding; the only legal obligation is that the United States report itscarbon emissions. So if the required cuts are too damaging to the economy, theUnited States is free to revise its emissions goals, he said.

　　斯坦福大学地球能源与情况科学学院地球零碎的讲师Jonathan Koomey称，认为巴黎协定连累美国经济这一点，几乎是荒诞至极。随便举个例子说吧，这个多方独特议定的减排方针是没有约束力的，美国独一需要尽到的执法义务便是发布其二氧化碳排放量。因此，如果所要求的减排量倒霉于经济增长，美国完全可以自己点窜减排方针。

　　"You can'thave nonbinding standards that are draconian," Koomey told Live Science.

　　“本就没有约束力的规范何来苛刻之说。”Koomey在与Live Science的对话中讲道。

　　Beyond that, mosteconomic analyses suggest that environmental regulations may actually boost theeconomy, both because they spur innovation and because they prevent harm,Koomey said.

　　除此之外，他还暗示，大大都经济学阐发都标明了，情况法例既能爱护情况，又能刺激立异，事实上只会提振经济。

Harm reduction

增加伤害

　　In his speech,Trump cited statistics from a coal-industry-funded think tank, called theNational Economic Research Associates, which claimed that the burdens from thenonbinding climate agreement would cost about $2.7 million in total jobs lostby 2025. He claimed it would cut production in the paper industry by 12percent, the cement industry by 23 percent, the iron and steel industry by 38percent, and the coal industry by 86 percent. He also cited a $3 billion pledgethe United States made to help developing countries reduce their carbonemissions. (The annual United States budget is $3.8 trillion, meaning thepledge amounts to less than 0.1 percent of yearly expenditures.)

　　特朗普在演说中援引了煤矿业智库美国国度经济研究协会的数据，认为到2025年，这个毫无约束力的气候协定将会导致美国损失共270万美元，而造纸、水泥、钢铁、煤炭等产业的产能别离下降12%、23%、38%和86%。别的，他还指责美国事先答应每年支援开展中国度30亿美元帮忙他们减排。（美国的年预算是3.8万亿美元，那笔钱其实只占此中的0.1%都不到。）

　　The idea thatenvironmental regulation hurts the economy is not a new one, Koomey said. Withalmost any new regulation, entrenched interests say thecosts will harm the economy and eliminate jobs.

　　Koomey暗示，认为情况法例会连累经济这种想法也不是什么陈腐事儿了。简直每项新规的推出，既得长处者们都认为这些规则会阻碍经济开展，增加就业。

　　"In virtuallyevery case that's been false," Koomey said.

　　“但他们每一次都是错的。”Koomey说。

　　The reason issimple: Environmental pollution costs money, reduces productivity and killspeople, so reducing it typically has financial benefits for society. Forinstance, because carbon dioxide acts as a lung irritant,fully implementing theClean Power Plan set up by President Barack Obama would lead to about 3,500fewer deaths by 2020, according to a 2015 study in the journal Nature ClimateChange. A peer-reviewed study conducted by the Environmental Protection Agencyin 2001 found that the Clean Air Act, which was passed in 1990, prevented160,000 premature deaths in 1990, 130,000 heart attacks, 86,000 emergency-roomvisits and 13 million lost days of work due to the negative health consequencesof air pollution. The benefit-to-cost ratio, according to the EPA, was 30 to 1.

　　原因再复杂不外了。情况污染破费大、低落出产率、风险生命，因此低落污染通常都可以或许给社会带来经济效益。好比，《自然气候变动》杂志2015年的一项研究标明，由于二氧化碳对肺部具有刺激性，切实实施前总统奥马巴推出的《清洁电力打算》，到2020年就能增加约3500人死亡。美国情况爱护署2001年停止的一项同行评审的研究发明，1990年，由于经由过程了《清洁氛围法》，过早死亡、心脏病发生发火和进抢救室的人次别离增加了16万、13万和8.6万，因为氛围污染带来安康问题而赋闲的人数增加了1300万。依据环保署的数据，治理情况的效益本钱比率是30:1。

　　"Environmentalpollution costs society money and it kills people," Koomey said. "Soif you fix that problem, then society is better off."

　　“情况污染既伤财力又风险生命，”Koomey说，“如果情况得到治理，社会将会愈加敷裕夸姣。”

　　That's not evenaddressing the trillions of dollars that will be spent if climate change leadsto some combination of coastal flooding, droughts, water shortages, heat waves,crop loss, famine and war, he added. According to a 2015 study by Citigroup,negative effects from climate change could total $44 trillion if the UnitedStates fails to shift to more renewable energy sources.

　　以上的效益本钱比甚至还没算入气候变动导致的沿海地域洪灾、旱灾、缺水、热浪、庄稼损失、饥馑和和平等各种所破费的巨资。花旗团体2015年停止的一项研究标明，如果无法完成向可再生能源的转型，美国将要破费44万亿美元去应对气候变动带来的负面影响。

Innovation andwealth creation

刺激立异，缔造财产

　　However,environmental regulations and climate change goals don't just prevent harms andlead to job loss from more polluting endeavors, they also fuel innovation andnew technologies, which directly grow the economy and produce new jobs, Koomeysaid.

　　Koomey称，情况法例和睦候变动方针尽管会导致更多与情况污染相关行业的工人赋闲，但有助于增加对社会和人类的伤害，还会刺激立异和新科技的发生，直接拉动经济增长，缔造出更多新岗亭。

　　As new regulationsor incentives come on board, companies find ways to meet improved standards inthe most cost-effective way possible. Thus, cleaner technologies get cheaperand become a bigger portion of the environment.

　　每当新规或新政策出台，各公司城市找到尽能够最经济有效的办法去迎合那些改善的高规范。因此，清洁技能越来越实惠，在情况治理中占据的位置也越来越重要。

　　For instance, thecost of solar energy has plummeted 80 percent in the last five years, whilewind technology has dropped in cost by two-thirds over the same period, and arenow often cheaper than more-polluting energy sources, Koomey said. That islargely thanks to natural efficiencies that come with scaling up manufacturinglevels. Technical innovations ―such as the use of carbon-fiber bladesrather than metal blades in wind turbines, the elimination of extra gears, andcomputers that use sophisticated modeling to best harness and release energyfrom wind and solar power plants ―have also played a role, he said.

　　比方，过来五年里，太阳能和风能的本钱别离大幅度低落了4/5和2/3。这两种能源此刻往往都比污染更严重的能源要廉价。这很大水平上归功于制造水安然平静自然效率的进步。别的，风力涡轮机以碳纤维叶片包办金属叶片，去失多余的齿轮，计较机使用进步前辈的模子以更好地操纵和释放风能和太阳能发电厂的能源等，这些技能立异对太阳能和风能本钱的低落也起着重要作用。

　　"We'resubstituting smarts for parts, we're substituting better materials and figuringout more clever ways to do the same tasks," Koomey said.

　　“我们正以脑力或更好的资料去包办电脑部件，在面临情况问题时，也同样会找到更多更机警的处理办法”，Koomey称。

　　Improved energystorage has progressively increased the fraction of energy that can be reliablypulled from renewable sources such as wind and solar, without causing energyshortages and brownouts, he said. For instance, energy companies are now usingold, abandoned coal mines to generate hydroelectric power during the day bypouring water deep into mines, then pumping it out at night, when the energygrid has much lower power demands, he said.

　　改善的能源储蓄方法使得风能和太阳能等可再生能源的储蓄逐渐增加，我们不用再担忧能源短缺或电压缺乏等问题。好比，能源公司白日操纵废旧的煤矿坑停止水力发电，当晚上能源网格的功率需求较低时我们就可以使用水电。

　　"Peoplecomplained about wind and solar technology 30,40 years ago and said if you puteven a few percent of that on our grid it will destabilize it, and that turnedout to be nonsense," Koomey said.

　　三四十年前，人们对风能和水能技能颇有牢骚，认为那些能源会粉碎电网。成效证明，这底子便是无稽之谈。

　　Now, utilitysystems can easily use 30 to 40 percent renewable energy without causing anyinterruptions in power supplied. With regulations in place, that same cycle ofinnovation is likely to proceed for years.

　　如今，供电零碎使用的电源中30%-40%都来自可再生能源，但并没有呈现任何电力中断景象。如果早点出台相关法例，这样的立异技能能够会提早好几年。

　　OF course, a majorsource of carbon emissions comes from cars, and electric vehicles have nottaken off in the same way as solar and wind power have. However, China hasalready mandated that a certain fraction of its cars must be electric by 2025,and because it's such a huge market, any major car companies will need todevelop attractive electric vehicles for this market if they want to compete,Koomey said. By relaxing fuel-efficiency standards and removing momentum forproducing electric cars, Trump's policies will only encourage U.S.-based carmanufacturers to lag behind, he said.

　　固然，二氧化碳排放主要是来自汽车尾气，而电动车还没有像风能和太阳能那么遍及。然而，中国当局已经规则了到2025年的电动车的市场据有率。中国这么大一个消费市场，任何想要分得一杯羹的大型汽车公司城市尽力研发足够吸引客户的电动车。而放宽燃油效率规范，冲击出产电动汽车的势头，特朗普的政策只会使美国汽车制造商远远被甩活着界背面。

　　All of these newtechnologies create jobs and products that grow the economy, Koomey said. Areport by the Rocky Mountain Institute, a clean-energy think tank, estimatesthat "decarbonizing" the economy will add $5 trillion to the economy.A 2016 study, funded by former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson,billionaire and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and hedge-fundmanager Thomas Steyer, found that reducing carbon emissions by 80 percent by2100 would actually save money, because the increased investment in renewableenergy would be more than offset by reduced costs associated with fossil fuels.

　　所有的新技能城市缔造出新的就业时机和新产物，拉动经济增长。据清洁能源智库落基山研究所的一份呈报估量，增加二氧化碳排放会给社会增加5万亿的经济收入。美国前财务部部长Henry Paulson，亿万财主、前纽约市长Michael Bloomberg和对冲基金司理Thomas Steyer三人2016年独特资助停止的一项研究发明，到2100年增加80%的二氧化碳排放量，实际上是在节流社会开支，因为对可再生能源日益增多的投资比低落化石能源本钱的投资赔偿要多得多。

　　People who opposeclimate regulations "are looking at this exactly wrong. They think this issomehow this great burden." But entrepreneur Richard Branson "hascalled the climate problem the single greatest wealth creation opportunity inhuman history," Koomey said.

　　支持气候法例的人"感觉这是个实实在在的谬误，他们把这当成一个繁重的担负。"可是企业家Richard Branson认为，“处理气候问题是人类史上缔造财产的最佳时机。”

　　https://www.livescience.com/59354-why-climate-reductions-help-economy.html

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